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Case fatality rate of Covid-19: Losing more sleep over denominators

Corona virus disease 2019 (Covid-19) appears to have first infected humans in the Wuhan province of China sometime in late 2019.1 In many of the earliest identified cases, pneumonia, severe acute respiratory infection symptoms, rapidly developing acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), acute respiratory failure, and death have occurred. The virus has since been identified in, and is presumed to have spread to, many regions of the world. Fears of a possible pandemic have led to some level of panic in the US and around the world, with stocks of surgical grade masks disappearing from pharmacy shelves and online sellers faster than manufacturers have been able to keep up. Global stock markets have also reacted with some level of panic.

During a 25 February 2020 Senate hearing regarding 2021 budget request issues,2 the Acting Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, Chad Wolf, was asked by Senator John Kennedy of Louisiana a question about the novel corona virus now known as Covid-19: “What’s the mortality rate so far?”

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Reynolds and Day will present two posters at SPER and SER annual meetings 2018

The annual meetings of the Society for Pediatric and Perinatal Epidemiologic Research (SPER) and the Society for Epidemiologic Research (SER) will take place in Baltimore, Maryland from June 18 to 22, 2018. We will present a scientific poster at each of these meetings. At SPER, Mortality related to cerebral palsy in the United States: Analysis of multiple causes of death and comparison with deaths in the general population from 2005 to 2014 will explore deaths in the US that include cerebral palsy (CP - ICD 10 code G80) as immediate, underlying, or contributing cause, or as an “other condition” of significance mentioned on a death certificate. At the SER meeting, Competing risks survival bias among US astronauts will explore whether deaths due to external causes (primarily accidents, including spacecraft tragedies) among astronauts might be obstructing our view of natural-cause deaths in this occupational cohort.

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In the midst of an epidemiologic revolution

The 48th Annual Meeting of the Society for Epidemiologic Research took place in Denver, Colorado 16-19 June 2015. For me, the highlight of the Meeting was the 2015 Keynote Cassel Lecture delivered by Dr Judea Pearl: The Scientific Approach to Causal Inference.

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